44% — Chicago Stars FC vs. NJ/NY Gotham FC
Kalshi 43% · 14 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 15:37:52 UTC

Why this matters:
The 40% probability reflects market expectation that Chicago Stars FC will win this match against NJ/NY Gotham FC. Pricing differs notably between venues, with Kalshi contracts averaging 45% versus Polymarket at 39%, suggesting either different trader demographics or interpretation of available information. Factors influencing this level include recent team form, head-to-head records, and injury status. The match result will resolve this uncertainty on its scheduled date. Current trading volume concentrates on the moneyline, while secondary markets for over/under goals and both teams scoring show minimal activity, indicating less certainty around game structure versus outcome.

Key factors:
- Chicago Stars quoted at 14¢ on Polymarket's primary contract represents approximately 14% implied probability, creating a 26-percentage-point gap from the 40% aggregated average
- Six percentage point divergence between Kalshi (45%) and Polymarket (39%) suggests potential information asymmetry or different market participant composition between venues
- 24-hour volume concentration on moneyline contracts ($118-$122) versus near-zero volume on O/U 3.5 and both-teams-to-score derivatives indicates confidence consensus on winner rather than match structure
- Historical win rates, goal differential, and defensive rankings of both clubs in the current season would drive substantial repricing if recent performance has shifted
- Injury status of key attacking or defensive players, confirmed closer to match date, typically moves moneyline probabilities 3-8 percentage points depending on player importance

Contracts:
- Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: LOUD — 42¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 25%)
- Will Vivo Keyd Stars win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: Vivo Keyd Stars — 57¢ Kalshi $682 (weight 22%)
- Will LOUD win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: LOUD — 41¢ Kalshi $286 (weight 19%)
- Will 7REX win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: 7REX — 31¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 11%)
- Will Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%)
- Will LOUD win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: LOUD — 42¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%)
- Will Vivo Keyd Stars win map 1 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: Vivo Keyd Stars — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%)
- Will Vivo Keyd Stars win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: Vivo Keyd Stars — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%)
- ... and 6 more

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chicago-stars-fc-vs-njny-gotham-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Chicago%20Stars%20FC%20vs.%20NJ%2FNY%20Gotham%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev