40% — Chicago Stars FC vs. Portland Thorns FC
Kalshi 40% · 17 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 14:53:55 UTC

Why this matters:
This 39% probability represents traders' estimate that Chicago Stars FC will defeat Portland Thorns FC in an upcoming match. The substantial 13-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (41%) and Kalshi (28%) suggests disagreement about Chicago's chances, likely reflecting different weightings of recent team performance, injury status, or home-field advantage. The match outcome will depend primarily on current roster availability, recent form and head-to-head dynamics, and venue conditions. Resolution occurs immediately following the match completion, making this a straightforward binary event with minimal ambiguity.

Key factors:
- Chicago's recent win-loss record and goal differential compared to Portland's current season performance
- Injury or roster availability status for key players on both teams as of match day
- Historical head-to-head results between these teams and home vs. away performance patterns
- The 13-percentage-point spread between venues suggests either systematic differences in trader bases or asymmetric information access between markets
- Home-field advantage location and any documented weather or field condition factors affecting play style

Contracts:
- Will LOUD win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: LOUD — 41¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 16%)
- Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner?: Portland Thorns — 59¢ Kalshi $896 (weight 15%)
- Will Vivo Keyd Stars win the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD League of Legends match?: Vivo Keyd Stars — 57¢ Kalshi $642 (weight 14%)
- Will LOUD win map 2 in the Vivo Keyd Stars vs. LOUD match?: LOUD — 41¢ Kalshi $286 (weight 12%)
- Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner?: Chicago — 16¢ Kalshi $195 (weight 11%)
- Chicago vs Portland Thorns Winner?: Tie — 21¢ Kalshi $83 (weight 10%)
- Will 7REX win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: 7REX — 30¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 7%)
- Will Vivo Keyd Stars Academy win the Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs. 7REX League of Legends match?: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 1%)
- ... and 9 more

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chicago-stars-fc-vs-portland-thorns-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Chicago%20Stars%20FC%20vs.%20Portland%20Thorns%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev