55% — Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election
Leader: Alexi Giannoulias at 55% · Kalshi 55% · 4 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 10:35:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 53% probability indicates that market participants currently view the leader as having a slight majority chance of winning Chicago's 2027 mayoral election, with the runner-up at 15% and remaining candidates sharing the balance. This level reflects relatively limited trading volume across four contracts, suggesting modest market confidence rather than consensus. The probability would likely shift based on changes in polling data, endorsements from major political figures, or shifts in campaign fundraising. The primary catalyst for uncertainty resolution will be the election itself in 2027, though interim developments—such as early primary results, candidate withdrawals, or major policy announcements—could meaningfully move prices before then. Current trading volume of approximately $125,447 in the 24-hour window suggests moderate but not intense market interest in this outcome.

Key factors:
- Current leader holds 53% probability with only 15% for runner-up, indicating meaningful but not overwhelming market conviction
- Four-contract market structure with limited 24-hour volume suggests relatively low liquidity and potential for sharp repricing on new information
- No near-term scheduled events specified; major catalysts likely include campaign announcements, polling data releases, and primary election dynamics over the next 18+ months
- Market is pricing this roughly 18+ months before the election occurs, creating substantial time for candidate positioning, coalition-building, and political developments to shift expectations
- Price reflects early-stage speculation with incomplete information about final candidate field and campaign dynamics

Contracts:
- Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?: Alexi Giannoulias — 55¢ Kalshi $68 (weight 6%)
- Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?: Susana Mendoza — 20¢ Kalshi $145 (weight 13%)
- Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?: Matt Brewer — 13¢ Kalshi $914 (weight 81%)
- Who will win 2027 Chicago mayoral election?: Brandon Johnson — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.253Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chicagomayor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%202027%20Chicago%20mayoral%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev