96% — Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 24% Leader: Above 2% at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 13 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-25 00:32:15 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: The market currently assigns a 96% probability that China's year-over-year import growth for April 2026 will exceed 2%, but only a 60% probability it exceeds 16%. This wide gap reflects uncertainty about the magnitude of import growth rather than whether imports will grow at all. China's imports are sensitive to global commodity prices, domestic manufacturing demand, and trade policy shifts. The key driver of the current pricing is recent macroeconomic data from China and trading partner economies, which typically shows import growth moderating or accelerating based on industrial production and infrastructure investment. The April 2026 customs data release—scheduled for early May—will resolve this question by providing actual year-over-year import figures, allowing traders to assess whether growth landed in the 2-14% range (most uncertain area) or exceeded expectations. Key factors: - The probability gradient across outcomes (96% above 2% but only 3% above 12%) indicates traders view April growth as likely positive but not explosive, centered in the single-digit to mid-teens range - Trading volume concentrates in the 2% threshold contract ($526 24h vol), suggesting this is the primary point of disagreement between bulls and bears - China's import growth is mechanically tied to global commodity cycles and domestic fixed-asset investment rates, both observable and predictable from leading indicators - The 14% and 16% thresholds show minimal probability (<20%), indicating market consensus against strong double-digit growth - April 2026 customs data becomes public in early May and definitively resolves all outcomes simultaneously Contracts: - Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 2%?: Above 2% — 96¢ Kalshi $526 (weight 29%) - Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 4%?: Above 4% — 96¢ Kalshi $366 (weight 20%) - Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 6%?: Above 6% — 96¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 6%) - Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 8%?: Above 8% — 93¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 0%) - Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 10%?: Above 10% — 93¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 0%) - Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 16%?: Above 16% — 60¢ Kalshi $206 (weight 11%) - Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 14%?: Above 14% — 16¢ Kalshi $390 (weight 22%) - Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 20%?: Above 20% — 10¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 1%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-09T05:05:44.677Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chimports Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20China%20imports%20YoY%20for%20April%202026%20be%20above%2024%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev