32% — What will China GDP growth be in 2026?
Kalshi 93% · Polymarket 90% · 20 contracts · $600K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 21:15:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 3pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
There is currently no direct prediction market data regarding China's 2026 GDP growth figures. However, investor sentiment regarding Chinese assets is reflected in the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) trading at $34.12, with prediction markets assigning only a 9% chance that U.S. imports of goods from China remain below $220 billion for the full year 2026.

Key factors:
- FXI ETF at $34.12
- low probability of significant US-China trade contraction
- geopolitical risk via export/trade curbs
- KWEB and MCHI asset volatility

Contracts:
- Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion? — 93¢ Kalshi $711 (weight 0%)
- China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0% — 90¢ Polymarket $225K (weight 38%)
- Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $280 billion? — 80¢ Kalshi $198 (weight 0%)
- Will China announce a new Boeing aircraft order in Sep 2026? — 58¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 0%)
- Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion? — 51¢ Kalshi $139 (weight 0%)
- Will China announce looser rare-earth export curbs to the U.S. in Sep 2026? — 50¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 0%)
- Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above 2.0%? — 39¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 0%)
- Will Brazilian GDP (YoY) for Q3 2026 be above 2.1%? — 26¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-19T06:41:22.292Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "32% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/china-gdp-growth-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20China%20GDP%20growth%20be%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev