31% — What will China GDP growth be in 2026?
Kalshi 95% · Polymarket 88% · 24 contracts · $529K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:15:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Cross-venue gap: 7pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
There is currently no direct prediction market data available for China's full-year 2026 GDP growth rate. However, Chinese equities are showing weakness, with major ETFs such as FXI, MCHI, and KWEB declining between 0.6% and 2.2% today, suggesting investor caution regarding economic growth prospects.

Key factors:
- Lack of direct GDP prediction markets
- FXI down 0.61%
- MCHI down 0.79%
- KWEB down 2.18%
- Broad emerging market volatility

Contracts:
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%? — 95¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 0%)
- China Annual GDP Growth 2026: 4.0–5.0% — 88¢ Polymarket $208K (weight 39%)
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.3%? — 84¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 0%)
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%? — 82¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 0%)
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.0%? — 81¢ Kalshi $143 (weight 0%)
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above -0.1%? — 55¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 0%)
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%? — 37¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 0%)
- Will Italy GDP growth rate QoQ adv for Q2 2026 be above 0.1%? — 21¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-23T06:41:22.673Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/china-gdp-growth-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20China%20GDP%20growth%20be%20in%202026%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev