55% — China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 4.6-4.9%
Leader: 4.6-4.9% at 55% · Polymarket 55% · 5 contracts · $672 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:32:11 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Contracts:
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 4.6-4.9% — 55¢ Polymarket $609 (weight 91%)
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 4.9-5.2% — 31¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 4.3-4.6% — 7¢ Polymarket $63 (weight 9%)
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: 5.2-5.5% — 7¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?: <4.0% — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-25T00:20:13.310Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/china-gdp-growth-yy-q2
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=China%20GDP%20growth%20(Y%2FY)%20in%20Q2%202026%3F%3A%204.6-4.9%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev