14% — Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027
Polymarket 14% · 1 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-09 21:57:47 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that China conducts a military invasion of Taiwan within the next 20 months. The 17% figure suggests markets view an invasion as unlikely but not negligible. Military escalation risks, geopolitical tensions, and cross-strait stability are the primary drivers of this probability. The current level reflects a period of relative calm compared to 2024-2025, though structural factors including Taiwan's strategic importance and military modernization efforts continue to shape assessments. Key catalysts that could shift this probability include changes in U.S.-China relations, Taiwan's defense capabilities, or any military incidents in the Taiwan Strait. No single scheduled event determines resolution, but significant policy shifts or military posturing by either side would likely move markets substantially.

Key factors:
- U.S. military commitment to Taiwan's defense and the current state of U.S.-China diplomatic relations
- Taiwan's defensive military capabilities and the timeline for completing weapons systems deliveries
- Recent military exercises or incidents in the Taiwan Strait and frequency of Chinese military activity near Taiwan
- China's domestic economic conditions and military readiness compared to 2024-2025 assessments
- Official statements from Chinese, American, and Taiwanese leadership regarding military intentions or deterrence strategies

Contracts:
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? — 14¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/china-invade-taiwan-december-31
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20China%20invade%20Taiwan%20by%20December%2031%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev