23% — Will China invade Taiwan?
Kalshi 29% · Polymarket 7% · 11 contracts · $197K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:03 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 22pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — 6¢ Polymarket $184K (weight 93%)
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? — 3¢ Polymarket $12K (weight 6%)
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? — 11¢ Polymarket $919 (weight 0%)
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 24¢ Kalshi $328 (weight 0%)
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 10% and 19.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 10% and 19.99% — 82¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 0%)
- Will China overtake US GDP by 2030?: By 2030 — 20¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%)
- Will the tariff rate on China imports be between 30% and 39.99% on Jul 1, 2026?: Between 30% and 39.99% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:11.212Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/china-taiwan
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20China%20invade%20Taiwan%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev