94% — Will China industrial production YoY for April 2026 be above 7.0% Leader: Above 8.5% at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 8 contracts · $191 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-09 21:47:11 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This market is pricing the likelihood that China's industrial production grew more than 7.0% year-over-year in April 2026. The 95% probability on the lower 2.5% threshold versus just 5% on the 7.0% threshold suggests traders expect industrial output to expand, but with material uncertainty about the pace. Recent Chinese economic data, manufacturing trends, and policy stimulus measures are likely anchoring expectations. The National Bureau of Statistics typically releases official April industrial production figures in mid-May, which will definitively resolve this market. Traders appear confident production will outpace the prior year by a meaningful margin, but the sharp probability cliff between 2.5% and 7.0% indicates skepticism about achieving robust double-digit or near-double-digit growth rates given structural headwinds in China's manufacturing sector. Key factors: - Official NBS April 2026 industrial production data release, expected mid-May, directly determines the outcome - Current contract pricing (5¢ at 7.0% vs 95¢ at 2.5%) implies traders expect growth in the 3-6% range rather than above 7% - Recent Chinese economic stimulus measures and their effectiveness in driving factory output by April would materially influence expectations - Global semiconductor and export demand trends affecting Chinese manufacturing capacity utilization in early 2026 - Seasonal patterns and base-effect comparisons from April 2025 industrial production levels Contracts: - Will China industrial production YoY for April 2026 be above 8.5%?: Above 8.5% — 94¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%) - Will China industrial production YoY for April 2026 be above 4.0%?: Above 4.0% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will China industrial production YoY for April 2026 be above 4.5%?: Above 4.5% — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will China industrial production YoY for April 2026 be above 5.0%?: Above 5.0% — 50¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 10%) - Will China industrial production YoY for April 2026 be above 6.0%?: Above 6.0% — 38¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 23%) - Will China industrial production YoY for April 2026 be above 6.5%?: Above 6.5% — 24¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 10%) - Will China industrial production YoY for April 2026 be above 5.5%?: Above 5.5% — 23¢ Kalshi $107 (weight 56%) - Will China industrial production YoY for April 2026 be above 8.0%?: Above 8.0% — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-19T01:20:46.904Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chipyoy Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20China%20industrial%20production%20YoY%20for%20April%202026%20be%20above%207.0%25 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev