95% — Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 52.0
Leader: Above 47.0 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 10 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:06:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 10 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 47.0?: Above 47.0 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 47.5?: Above 47.5 — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 48.0?: Above 48.0 — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 48.5?: Above 48.5 — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 49.0?: Above 49.0 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 49.5?: Above 49.5 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 50.0?: Above 50.0 — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- Will China NBS manufacturing PMI for May 2026 be above 50.5?: Above 50.5 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 10%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-24T23:20:11.889Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chnbspmi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20China%20NBS%20manufacturing%20PMI%20for%20May%202026%20be%20above%2052.0
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev