89% — Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 2.0%
Leader: Above 0.5% at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 6 contracts · $142 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-25 00:54:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 0.5%?: Above 0.5% — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 1.0%?: Above 1.0% — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 1.5%?: Above 1.5% — 72¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 2%)
- Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 3.0%?: Above 3.0% — 21¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 8%)
- Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 3.5%?: Above 3.5% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will China retail sales YoY for April 2026 be above 2.5%?: Above 2.5% — 5¢ Kalshi $127 (weight 90%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-19T01:20:46.904Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chretail
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20China%20retail%20sales%20YoY%20for%20April%202026%20be%20above%202.0%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev