97% — Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.65 million active customers in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 21.6 million at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 7 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether Chewy will report more than 21.65 million active customers in their second quarter of 2026. The 64% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome occurring. Chewy's customer base has grown steadily, but the specific threshold of 21.65 million represents meaningful growth from recent quarters. The key driver is Chewy's actual Q2 2026 earnings report, which will provide definitive active customer metrics. Market participants appear to view higher thresholds (21.7 million) as unlikely while considering baseline growth (21.6 million) highly probable. Uncertainty centers on whether growth will accelerate beyond historical trends or whether adoption rates stabilize. The resolution depends entirely on Chewy's official quarterly filing and how the company calculates and reports active customer counts, typically released in early August 2026.

Key factors:
- Chewy's historical customer growth rate trend through 2025-2026 relative to reaching 21.65 million by Q2
- Competitive pressures and market saturation in pet e-commerce affecting customer acquisition velocity
- Chewy's Q2 2026 earnings release date and official active customer metric disclosure
- Definition consistency: whether Chewy's active customer calculation methodology remains unchanged quarter-over-quarter
- Broader pet care spending patterns and e-commerce adoption rates in the reported period

Contracts:
- Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.6 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.6 million — 97¢ Kalshi $659 (weight 12%)
- Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.625 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.625 million — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.65 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.65 million — 71¢ Kalshi $850 (weight 16%)
- Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.675 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.675 million — 61¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 24%)
- Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.7 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.7 million — 49¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 27%)
- Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.725 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.725 million — 9¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 4%)
- Will Chewy Inc. report Above 21.75 million active customers in Q2 2026?: Above 21.75 million — 6¢ Kalshi $897 (weight 17%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-10T13:20:52.233Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/chwy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chewy%20Inc.%20report%20Above%2021.65%20million%20active%20customers%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev