39% — Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner
Leader: KaBuM! IDL at 39% · Polymarket 39% · 6 contracts · $191 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:54:16 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the aggregated probability that KaBuM! IDL will win the 2026 Split 1 championship in Circuito Desafiante, Brazil's secondary League of Legends league. The 30% probability reflects moderate confidence in KaBuM!'s competitive standing, though uncertainty remains substantial given the split is underway and multiple teams remain viable contenders. The current assessment likely depends on KaBuM!'s recent match performance, roster stability, and historical performance within Circuito Desafiante relative to competitors. The main catalyst for probability movement will be KaBuM!'s performance in remaining regular season matches and playoff advancement, with the split's conclusion in approximately June 2026 serving as the resolution event. Market depth appears limited, with only $60 in 24-hour volume on the KaBuM! contract, suggesting thin liquidity relative to CBLOL division markets.

Key factors:
- KaBuM!'s current win-loss record and recent match outcomes in Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1
- Roster composition and player performance metrics compared to other split contenders
- Historical performance of KaBuM! IDL in Circuito Desafiante tournaments and their typical competitive tier
- Market liquidity and trading volume on this contract ($60/24h) versus related LoL markets, indicating confidence or uncertainty among traders
- Playoff bracket structure and remaining schedule—how KaBuM!'s path to finals compares to competitors' paths

Contracts:
- Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: KaBuM! IDL — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: Keyd Stars Academy — 24¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: Estral Esports — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: paiN Gaming Academy — 12¢ Polymarket $85 (weight 45%)
- Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: INTZ — 12¢ Polymarket $20 (weight 10%)
- Circuito Desafiante 2026 Split 1 Winner: 7REX — 3¢ Polymarket $86 (weight 45%)

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/circuito-desafiante-split-1-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Circuito%20Desafiante%202026%20Split%201%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev