29% — Will Count Binface Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election
Kalshi 29% · 3 contracts · $159 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 19:27:50 UTC

Why this matters:
This markets asks whether Count Binface Party will finish in second place in the 2026 Clacton by-election. At 12% probability, traders assess this as an unlikely but non-negligible outcome. The current estimate reflects uncertainty around several variables: the full candidate field has not yet solidified, voter preferences remain fluid ahead of formal campaigning, and Clacton's specific electoral dynamics are difficult to predict. Count Binface Party's novelty status and limited historical polling data in this constituency create wide confidence intervals. The main catalyst for resolution will be the actual by-election result once it occurs. Between now and voting day, any major polling releases, candidate withdrawals, or shifts in voter sentiment could materially alter expectations. The relatively high trading volume on the Count Binface contract (versus other fringe candidates) suggests moderate market interest despite the low baseline probability.

Key factors:
- Count Binface Party received 68¢ pricing versus 7¢ for Forward Party, the second-most-backed option, indicating the market views them as the stronger performer among non-traditional candidates
- By-election timing and formal candidate confirmation remain pending, leaving substantial uncertainty about final field composition and ballot prominence
- Historical polling and vote share data for Count Binface Party in Clacton specifically is minimal, making statistical forecasting difficult
- Second-place finishes typically go to mainstream opposition parties; fringe candidates reaching second would require unusually fragmented voting or organizational collapse of major contenders
- Trading volume of $1,659 in 24 hours on this contract is moderate relative to major political markets, suggesting professional uncertainty rather than consensus conviction

Contracts:
- Will Count Binface Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: Count Binface Party — 76¢ Kalshi $159 (weight 100%)
- Will British Democratic Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: British Democratic Party — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Reclaim Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: Reclaim Party — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:49.006Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/clacton2nd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Count%20Binface%20Party%20finish%202nd%20in%20the%202026%20Clacton%20by-election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev