7% — Will Luke Worley finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election Kalshi 7% · 6 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-25 02:28:17 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the estimated chance that Luke Worley finishes in third place in the 2026 Clacton by-election. At 10%, Worley trails other potential third-place finishers including Forward Party (19¢) and Count Binface Party (22¢), suggesting analysts view him as less likely than these alternatives to achieve the third position. The likelihood depends on how Clacton's electorate splits across candidates beyond the frontrunners, and whether Worley's specific appeal in this constituency translates to a strong third-place showing. The by-election itself will provide definitive resolution when votes are counted, making candidate momentum, local campaign effectiveness, and the broader fragmentation of the non-frontrunner vote the primary drivers of movement in this probability. Historical by-election results in similar constituencies can inform expectations about how concentrated or dispersed third-place finishes typically are. Key factors: - Forward Party and Count Binface Party are currently priced higher for third place, indicating market assessment that Worley faces competitive pressure from multiple alternative candidates - Kalshi volume for the Worley contract ($218 in 24h) is moderate compared to Forward Party ($271), suggesting some trader interest but less conviction than in other outcomes - The 10% probability implies roughly 1-in-10 odds, requiring Worley to substantially outperform multiple other candidates positioned as more likely third-place finishers - By-election timing and candidate field composition remain critical unknown factors that would directly affect fragmentation and Worley's relative positioning - Historical Clacton voting patterns and demographic alignment with Worley's political positioning would shape realistic performance expectations Contracts: - Will Reclaim Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: Reclaim Party — 8¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 89%) - Will Social Democratic Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: Social Democratic Party — 13¢ Kalshi $362 (weight 10%) - Will Official Monster Raving Loony Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: Official Monster Raving Loony Party — 5¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%) - Will British Democratic Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: British Democratic Party — 6¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 0%) - Will Count Binface Party finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: Count Binface Party — 7¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%) - Will Ollie Granger finish 3rd in the 2026 Clacton by-election?: Ollie Granger — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-15T13:20:52.108Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/clacton3rd Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Luke%20Worley%20finish%203rd%20in%20the%202026%20Clacton%20by-election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev