15% — When will Claude 5 be released?
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 15% · Kalshi 15% · 5 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:16 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 15¢ Kalshi $248 (weight 4%)
- Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $260 (weight 5%)
- Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 7¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 91%)
- Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Anthropic release Mythos before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.419Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/claude-5-release
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20Claude%205%20be%20released%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev