84% — Will Claude go down on __ days in April?: 12+
Kalshi 84% · 1 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-21 08:16:27 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 40% probability that Claude (an AI system) will experience downtime on 12 or more days in April 2026. The estimate reflects aggregated trader views across two venues, with Polymarket pricing slightly higher than Kalshi at 44% versus 38%. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: historical frequency of outages for large AI systems and the specific operational resilience of Claude's infrastructure during the measured month. The market will resolve based on actual documented downtime events in April, making this a straightforward observable outcome. Traders appear modestly uncertain, suggesting either insufficient historical data on Claude's reliability, varied expectations about infrastructure stress during this period, or disagreement about what constitutes a qualifying downtime event.

Key factors:
- Claude's documented uptime statistics or outage frequency from prior months provide a baseline for April expectations
- The definition of 'down' in the contract terms—whether it includes partial service degradation, regional outages, or only complete unavailability
- April 2026 operational schedule and any planned maintenance windows that could count toward the 12-day threshold
- Comparable reliability metrics for competing AI services might indicate whether 12+ days is typical or anomalous for the industry
- Real-time monitoring data through April would directly inform whether the threshold is trending toward achievement or away from it

Contracts:
- Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027 — 84¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-14T11:20:53.385Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/claude-go-down-days-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Claude%20go%20down%20on%20__%20days%20in%20April%3F%3A%2012%2B
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev