15% — Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 15% · Kalshi 15% · 5 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:18 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects aggregated market expectations that Anthropic will announce its Mythos model release before November 1, 2026. The 56% level suggests traders view a release as somewhat more likely than not, though meaningful uncertainty remains. The main drivers are Anthropic's historical release cadence—the company announced Claude 3 in March 2024 and Claude 3.5 in October 2024—and competitive pressures from other AI labs. Upward pressure comes from technical capabilities likely already developed; downward pressure stems from potential safety reviews, deployment complexity, or strategic delays. Key upcoming events include any Anthropic announcements at major conferences through summer 2026 and the company's disclosed roadmap timelines. The resolution date is less than six months away, making this relatively near-term compared to broader AI development timelines. Key factors: - Anthropic's historical release pattern shows major model announcements approximately every 6-12 months; the last major release (Claude 3.5 Sonnet) occurred in October 2024 - Competitive dynamics with OpenAI, Google, and Meta releasing models on accelerating schedules could influence Anthropic's timing strategy - Related market indicators show traders assign 76% probability to Anthropic's IPO before 2027, suggesting confidence in the company's near-term operational activity - November 1 deadline is 5 months away, leaving limited time for announcement, training completion, and safety review cycles typical of major releases - No official Anthropic announcement or leaked timeline has been widely reported as of May 2026, introducing uncertainty about actual development stage Contracts: - Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 15¢ Kalshi $248 (weight 4%) - Will Anthropic release Mythos before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $260 (weight 5%) - Will Anthropic release Mythos before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 7¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 91%) - Will Anthropic release Mythos before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Anthropic release Mythos before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:50.835Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/claude-myth Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Anthropic%20release%20Mythos%20before%20Nov%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev