95% — Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026
Leader: Before Aug 14, 2026 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 3 contracts · $64K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 03:19:21 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Market participants estimate an 89% probability that Anthropic will release the next Claude Opus model by August 14, 2026. The distribution across contracts spanning July 21 through August 14 reveals traders expect the announcement within the next 3-4 weeks, with heaviest concentration around late July. The current pricing reflects anticipation of an imminent release based on typical development cycles and competitive pressure, though the declining probability as dates move earlier (27% by July 21 vs. 89% by August 14) suggests meaningful uncertainty about the exact timing. The primary driver is Anthropic's historical release cadence and any public statements or hints about deployment schedules. A formal announcement or leaked information about launch timing would immediately clarify this uncertainty, while a mid-August deadline approach without news would gradually compress these probabilities downward.

Key factors:
- The steepest probability drop occurs between July 21 (27¢) and July 22 (58¢), indicating traders expect either imminent announcement or a mid-late-July window before meaningful delay becomes apparent
- Highest contract volume ($602 24h) concentrates on the July 22 deadline, suggesting this represents the modal expectation among active traders
- The 89% August 14 vs. 86% July 31 spread (only 3 points) implies traders assign roughly 3-6% cumulative probability to release occurring between August 1-14
- No scheduled Anthropic announcement date or public roadmap appears to anchor these probabilities, making the market reliant on typical industry release cycles and informal signals
- The multi-outcome contract structure across five specific dates allows traders to express precise timing beliefs rather than binary yes/no positions

Contracts:
- Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Aug 14, 2026?: Before Aug 14, 2026 — 95¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 4%)
- Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 27, 2026?: Before Jul 27, 2026 — 93¢ Kalshi $47K (weight 73%)
- Will Anthropic release next Claude Opus model before Jul 31, 2026?: Before Jul 31, 2026 — 93¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 23%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-25T07:20:51.496Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/claude-opus
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Anthropic%20release%20next%20Claude%20Opus%20model%20before%20Jul%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev