11% — Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Sep 1, 2026 Leader: Before Nov 1, 2026 at 11% · Kalshi 11% · 3 contracts · $86 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-07 12:10:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This 13% probability reflects a low likelihood that Anthropic will release an Opus 6 model before September 1, 2026—roughly two and a half weeks from today. The low pricing reflects the tight timeframe combined with Anthropic's typical development cadence; Opus 5 has been their leading model for over a year, suggesting longer intervals between major releases. The probability would move significantly based on any official Anthropic announcement or credible reporting about an imminent Opus 6 launch. The main catalyst for resolution is whether Anthropic makes a public release or announcement by September 1st. If the date passes without release, markets would likely reprice toward later October or November deadlines, where contract prices currently range from 3% to 12%, suggesting most traders expect a later 2026 launch if one occurs at all. Key factors: - Anthropic has not announced or hinted at an Opus 6 release date; lack of pre-announcement communication historically precedes major releases by weeks - The current timeframe (August 13 to September 1) is only 19 days, which is unusually short for a major model launch cycle in Anthropic's historical pattern - Contract prices rise substantially for October and November deadlines (10-12%), indicating market consensus expects a later release, not early September - Kalshi contract volumes are highest for the November and October 16 dates ($1,653 and $973 respectively), suggesting traders view those as more probable outcomes - No credible news reports or industry indicators as of mid-August 2026 suggest an imminent Opus 6 announcement Contracts: - Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 11¢ Kalshi $86 (weight 100%) - Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Sep 16, 2026?: Before Sep 16, 2026 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Oct 16, 2026?: Before Oct 16, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-07T11:21:05.714Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/claude-opus6 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Anthropic%20release%20Opus%206%20before%20Sep%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev