8% — Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections
Kalshi 8% · 7 contracts · $283 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 03:36:07 UTC

Why this matters:
This market predicts whether Arizona will see the closest race among all 2026 U.S. gubernatorial elections. At 8%, the probability reflects Arizona's moderate competitiveness relative to other swing states, with Kansas currently favored at 3% due to its different political dynamics. Arizona's probability is driven by historical voting patterns and demographic trends that typically produce mid-range margins compared to reliably red or blue states. The election occurs on November 3, 2026, which will definitively resolve this contract by measuring the actual margin of victory across all gubernatorial races that year. Factors affecting this probability include candidate quality, turnout patterns, and whether Arizona attracts higher-profile national attention than competing swing states.

Key factors:
- Arizona's 2022 gubernatorial margin was 12 points; competitiveness requires significantly tighter final results than recent cycles
- Kansas contracts trade at 3% despite historically lower margins, suggesting market participants view Arizona as less likely to produce the smallest margin
- Only four other states have active contracts, meaning Arizona competes against Iowa (12%), Georgia (10%), Michigan (5%), and Kansas (3%) for the lowest margin
- Candidate recruitment and quality differentials between Arizona and other swing states could shift probabilities as the 2026 cycle develops
- Turnout and demographic shifts in Arizona maturing since 2022 will influence whether margins compress to competitive single-digit levels

Contracts:
- Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Michigan — 4¢ Kalshi $269 (weight 95%)
- Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Georgia — 12¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 5%)
- Will Arizona have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Arizona — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Iowa — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Nevada have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Nevada — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Ohio — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Wisconsin have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States gubernatorial elections?: Wisconsin — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T03:20:49.760Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/closestgovernor
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Arizona%20have%20the%20smallest%20margin%20of%20victory%20in%202026%20United%20States%20gubernatorial%20elections
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev