8% — Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections Kalshi 8% · 12 contracts · $308 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:05 UTC Why this matters: This prediction assesses the likelihood that Alaska's 2026 Senate race will have the smallest winning margin among all U.S. Senate contests that year. The 17% probability suggests markets view this as unlikely but plausible. Alaska's Senate elections have historically featured competitive races, but the current assessment reflects expectations that other states may produce even tighter contests. The probability would rise if polling shows Alaska's race tightening significantly or if races in other competitive states appear to be widening. It would fall if other states develop more competitive dynamics. The outcome will be determined once all 2026 Senate results are finalized in November, with the margin of victory calculated for each race to identify the smallest. Key factors: - Alaska's historical voting patterns and current partisan lean relative to other 2026 Senate battlegrounds - Candidate quality and fundraising capacity in Alaska versus competitive races in other states like Nevada, Arizona, or Pennsylvania - Turnout dynamics and voter enthusiasm in Alaska compared to simultaneous 2026 gubernatorial and House races nationally - Current polling averages for Alaska's Senate race versus early indicators in other competitive Senate states - Whether Alaska's race remains a two-person contest or faces third-party or write-in challenges that could affect margin calculations Contracts: - Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Florida — 4¢ Kalshi $279 (weight 91%) - Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Texas — 17¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 8%) - Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Maine — 5¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 2%) - Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Alaska — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Georgia — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Iowa — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Michigan — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Minnesota have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Minnesota — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:07.379Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/closestsenate Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alaska%20have%20the%20smallest%20margin%20of%20victory%20in%202026%20United%20States%20Senate%20elections Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev