8% — Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections Kalshi 8% · 10 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-28 19:39:06 UTC Why this matters: This contract resolves if Alaska's 2026 Senate race produces the narrowest margin among all competitive Senate elections that year. At 8%, markets assess Alaska as unlikely to have the tightest race, with Maine, Iowa, and Ohio rated as more probable contenders. The outcome depends on which seats become genuinely competitive and the strength of challenger recruitment across states. Alaska's probability reflects both the state's voting patterns—it has lean-Republican tendencies that may reduce competitiveness—and uncertainty about whether Senate dynamics will produce an unexpectedly close race there. The contract will clarify substantially as Labor Day approaches and final candidate slates solidify, though the ultimate margin won't be known until election night in November 2026. Key factors: - Alaska's 2024 Senate election produced a roughly 5-point margin; a 2026 race must be significantly tighter than historical norms to win this contract - Maine, Iowa, and Ohio are priced 10-11¢, suggesting markets view them as more likely hosts for the closest statewide race - Challenger recruitment, fundraising capacity, and incumbent vulnerability through fall 2026 will determine which states generate sub-3-point margins - Alaska's Republican-leaning lean and lack of recent history as a ultra-competitive battleground state work against narrow-margin scenarios - Final resolution depends on calculating all 2026 Senate race margins and identifying the single smallest—a binary outcome determined entirely by election results Contracts: - Will Maine have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Maine — 7¢ Kalshi $940 (weight 92%) - Will Ohio have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Ohio — 11¢ Kalshi $69 (weight 7%) - Will Texas have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Texas — 16¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 1%) - Will Alaska have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Alaska — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Florida have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Florida — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Georgia have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Georgia — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Iowa have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Iowa — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Michigan have the smallest margin of victory in 2026 United States Senate elections?: Michigan — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-28T19:20:50.786Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/closestsenate Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alaska%20have%20the%20smallest%20margin%20of%20victory%20in%202026%20United%20States%20Senate%20elections Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev