43% — Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali
Leader: América de Cali at 43% · Polymarket 43% · 3 contracts · $364 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:58:28 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 25% probability reflects aggregated market expectations for Club Alianza Atlético's performance against América de Cali, a match in South American football. The 10-percentage-point gap between venues suggests different assessments of team form, head-to-head history, or injury status. Markets pricing this outcome rely on recent performance data, home-field advantage, and roster composition. The primary driver of probability changes would be confirmed lineup announcements or injury reports released before match day. Resolution occurs when the match concludes and the final result is recorded, typically determining whether the specified outcome occurred. Polymarket's higher pricing may reflect different weighting of recent form or betting patterns within that user base.

Key factors:
- Recent win-loss records and goal differential for both clubs in their respective leagues leading into the fixture
- Home-field advantage status and historical head-to-head results between the two teams
- Confirmed absences or returns of key players through official team announcements or injury reports
- Venue conditions and travel factors that could affect team performance
- Volume and pricing consistency across the 13 Polymarket and 7 Kalshi contracts, indicating confidence or uncertainty in the estimate

Contracts:
- Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: América de Cali — 43¢ Polymarket $244 (weight 67%)
- Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: Draw (Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali) — 30¢ Polymarket $45 (weight 12%)
- Club Alianza Atlético vs. América de Cali: Club Alianza Atlético — 28¢ Polymarket $75 (weight 21%)

Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/club-alianza-atltico-vs-amrica-de-cali
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Club%20Alianza%20Atl%C3%A9tico%20vs.%20Am%C3%A9rica%20de%20Cali
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev