34% — Club Aurora vs. CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo - More Markets
Polymarket 25% · Kalshi 34% · 20 contracts · $2.7M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-05-04 11:58:07 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 9pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
This 34% probability reflects market expectations that CD San Antonio Bulo Bolo will win an upcoming match, though trading activity is sparse outside a few contracts. The gap between Kalshi (25%) and Polymarket (37%) suggests disagreement about the team's chances, possibly reflecting different trader bases or confidence levels. The highest-volume contracts actually reference the San Antonio Spurs' NBA championship odds rather than the Bolivian club, indicating potential data labeling confusion. Resolution depends on the specific match outcome, which hasn't been publicly dated in available contracts. Liquidity remains low across most CD San Antonio contracts, meaning prices could shift substantially on new information or limited trading volume.

Key factors:
- Contract mislabeling confusion: top volume contracts reference NBA teams (San Antonio Spurs) rather than CD San Antonio Bulo Bolo, suggesting potential data integrity issues
- 12 percentage-point spread between venues indicates meaningful disagreement, with Polymarket pricing the team 48% higher than Kalshi
- Minimal liquidity on actual CD San Antonio Bulo Bolo match contracts ($81-$7 volumes) compared to NBA-related contracts (hundreds of thousands), raising questions about price reliability
- No clearly stated match date or opponent visible in contract descriptions, creating uncertainty about when resolution occurs
- Kalshi's lower pricing may reflect different market composition or information access versus Polymarket's higher assessment

Contracts:
- Game 1: Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: Minnesota — 16¢ Kalshi $1.1M (weight 7%)
- Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?: San Antonio — 21¢ Kalshi $438K (weight 6%)
- Minnesota vs San Antonio 2026 2nd Round series winner?: Minnesota — 12¢ Kalshi $438K (weight 6%)
- Game 1: Minnesota at San Antonio Winner?: San Antonio — 84¢ Kalshi $175K (weight 6%)
- 2026 NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs — 20¢ Polymarket $138K (weight 6%)
- San Antonio wins by over 12.5 points?: San Antonio wins by over 12.5 points — 51¢ Kalshi $117K (weight 6%)
- Minnesota vs San Antonio 2026 2nd Round series winner?: San Antonio — 86¢ Kalshi $99K (weight 6%)
- Will the San Antonio win the 2026 Pro Basketball Western Conference Championship?: San Antonio — 29¢ Kalshi $34K (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/club-aurora-vs-cd-san-antonio-bulo-bulo-more-markets
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Club%20Aurora%20vs.%20CD%20San%20Antonio%20Bulo%20Bulo%20-%20More%20Markets
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev