51% — Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC
Leader: Clube Náutico Capibaribe at 51% · Polymarket 51% · 3 contracts · $15 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 06:45:04 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the aggregate probability that Clube Náutico Capibaribe will defeat América FC based on predictions from market participants. Clube Náutico Capibaribe is currently priced at 49%, indicating the market views the match as competitive but favoring the first team. The probability reflects assessments of both teams' recent form, head-to-head history, and any available team information as of early May 2026. A draw is priced at 28%, while an América FC victory is at 24%. The match outcome itself will resolve this market, with the probability likely shifting based on any team news, injury reports, or tactical updates released closer to kickoff. Extreme shifts would signal new information entering the market that substantially changes expectations about either team's performance.

Key factors:
- Clube Náutico Capibaribe holds a 49% win probability versus 24% for América FC, a 2:1 ratio suggesting meaningful but not overwhelming favorability
- The draw outcome is priced at 28%, indicating participants assess a meaningful chance of a tied result rather than a decisive victory
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all three contracts suggests limited recent market activity, making the current prices potentially less responsive to very recent developments
- The three-contract structure forces all uncertainty into these three mutually exclusive outcomes; shifts between contracts reveal changing assessments of match likelihood rather than new external information
- Clube Náutico Capibaribe's lead over the runner-up (draw) is 21 percentage points, indicating moderate separation in market confidence rather than consensus

Contracts:
- Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC: Clube Náutico Capibaribe — 51¢ Polymarket $15 (weight 100%)
- Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC: Draw (Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC) — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Clube Náutico Capibaribe vs. América FC: América FC — 23¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/clube-nutico-capibaribe-vs-amrica-fc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Clube%20N%C3%A1utico%20Capibaribe%20vs.%20Am%C3%A9rica%20FC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev