96% — Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4160 total restaurant count in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 4100 at 96% · Kalshi 96% · 13 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 04:13:49 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects a 95% market expectation that Chipotle will operate more than 4,160 restaurants by the end of Q2 2026. The high probability reflects Chipotle's established expansion track record and publicly guided growth targets, which markets have confidence the company will meet or exceed. The main downside risks would be accelerated store closures, unexpected capital constraints, or strategic shifts away from aggressive expansion. The key catalyst is Chipotle's Q2 2026 earnings report, expected in late July 2026, which will provide the actual restaurant count and settle this contract. Market attention to comparable sales growth contracts—currently priced much lower (15¢ for above 4% growth)—suggests investors are more uncertain about sales performance than unit count, indicating expansion may proceed even if same-store sales disappoint.

Key factors:
- Chipotle's recent quarterly reports showing consistent net unit growth trajectory and management guidance on store openings
- Q2 2026 comparable sales uncertainty, with markets pricing above 4% growth at only 15¢, suggesting expansion may not correlate with strong same-store performance
- Capital availability and labor cost pressures, which could constrain or accelerate build-out depending on cost environment and financing conditions
- Q2 2026 earnings release (expected late July 2026) will provide definitive restaurant count and resolve the contract
- Historical gap between unit growth and sales growth in recent quarters, indicating the market views these as partially independent outcomes

Contracts:
- Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4100 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?: Above 4100 — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4120 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?: Above 4120 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4130 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?: Above 4130 — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4140 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?: Above 4140 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 1% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q2 2026?: Above 1% — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4150 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?: Above 4150 — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 2% comparable restaurant sales increase in Q2 2026?: Above 2% — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- Will Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. report Above 4160 total restaurant count in Q2 2026?: Above 4160 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%)
- ... and 5 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.865Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cmg
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Chipotle%20Mexican%20Grill%20Inc.%20report%20Above%204160%20total%20restaurant%20count%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev