84% — Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion
Leader: Below $300 billion at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 04:18:47 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing an 84% likelihood that U.S. goods imports from China in 2026 will remain below $300 billion. This reflects expectations about trade policy, tariff levels, and bilateral commerce patterns for the full year. The current probability is elevated, suggesting traders expect import volumes to stay constrained either through continued restrictive trade measures or reduced demand. Key upward pressure would come from tariff reductions or policy reversals; downward pressure from escalating duties or accelerated import substitution. The resolution depends on final 2026 import data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, typically in early 2027, though year-to-date figures through mid-2026 already provide substantial information about the trajectory needed to reach or exceed $300 billion by year-end.

Key factors:
- U.S.-China tariff rates as of mid-2026 and any scheduled changes announced for H2 2026
- Year-to-date import values from January–June 2026 relative to the $150 billion benchmark (half of $300 billion annualized)
- Announced tariff exemptions, negotiations, or policy shifts that could alter trade flow assumptions
- Alternative sourcing trends and supply-chain diversification away from China across major import categories
- Seasonal import patterns in Q3–Q4 2026 relative to historical norms and known inventory cycles

Contracts:
- Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $300 billion?: Below $300 billion — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $280 billion?: Below $280 billion — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $260 billion?: Below $260 billion — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $240 billion?: Below $240 billion — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will U.S. imports of goods from China for 2026 be below $220 billion?: Below $220 billion — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T03:20:49.525Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cnimport
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20U.S.%20imports%20of%20goods%20from%20China%20for%202026%20be%20below%20%24300%20billion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev