56% — CO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Diana DeGette at 56% · Polymarket 56% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:57:47 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Contracts:
- CO-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Diana DeGette — 56¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)
- CO-01 Democratic Primary Winner: Melat Kiros — 42¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:12.307Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "56% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/co01-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=CO-01%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev