79% — How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030
Leader: At least 440 at 79% · Kalshi 79% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 01:25:29 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that atmospheric CO2 will reach at least 440 ppm before the end of 2029. Current CO2 levels stand near 425 ppm, meaning a rise of roughly 15 ppm in approximately 3.5 years would be required. The trajectory depends on two primary factors: global emission trends and natural carbon cycle dynamics. Recent years have seen CO2 rise approximately 2-2.5 ppm annually, though this rate fluctuates with economic activity and weather patterns. An 80% probability suggests markets expect continued emissions growth or stable/increasing atmospheric concentrations. The key uncertainty driver is whether global emissions will accelerate, stabilize, or begin declining—outcomes influenced by policy implementation, industrial activity, and renewable energy adoption. Actual atmospheric measurements, released monthly by organizations like NOAA, will determine whether this threshold is crossed before 2030.

Key factors:
- Global CO2 emission rates in 2026-2029 relative to historical 2-2.5 ppm annual growth trajectory
- NOAA and similar organizations' monthly atmospheric CO2 measurements showing whether 425 ppm → 440 ppm occurs by December 2029
- Economic growth and energy demand patterns, particularly in developing economies, affecting fossil fuel combustion rates
- Policy effectiveness in major emitter nations regarding emissions reduction versus baseline projections
- Natural climate variability (e.g., volcanic activity, ocean cycles) that could temporarily suppress or enhance measured atmospheric concentrations

Contracts:
- How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 440 — 79¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 445 — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 450 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 455 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.693Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "79% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/co2level
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20bad%20will%20CO2%20atmospheric%20concentration%20get%20before%202030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev