92% — Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1
Leader: Mike Vrabel at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 2 contracts · $6K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:34 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 18% probability reflects the likelihood that someone other than Mike Vrabel (currently priced at 77%) becomes the New England Patriots head coach by Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season. The low probability suggests the market views Vrabel as the heavily favored candidate, though alternatives remain possible. The main factors keeping this probability elevated are uncertainties around Vrabel's final contract negotiations, potential late-stage changes in the team's organizational direction, and the possibility of unexpected candidate availability. The critical resolution point will be the official announcement of New England's head coach hire, which typically occurs in January or early February before the new season begins.

Key factors:
- Mike Vrabel's contract negotiations with the Patriots and whether he formally accepts or declines the position
- Emergence of unexpected coaching candidates becoming available due to playoff eliminations or NFL organizational changes
- New England's ownership or front office making a last-minute change in coaching direction or hiring preference
- The timeline of when the official announcement occurs relative to the start of Week 1 in September 2026
- Competitive bidding from other NFL teams that might acquire alternative candidates before the Patriots finalize their hire

Contracts:
- Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Mike Vrabel — 92¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 100%)
- Who will be the head coach of New England for Week 1?: Terrell Williams — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.996Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/coachondate
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20be%20the%20head%20coach%20of%20New%20England%20for%20Week%201
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev