51% — Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026 Leader: Matt Quatraro at 51% · Kalshi 51% · 19 contracts · $2 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-23 22:51:31 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes. Why this matters: This represents the market's assessment that at least one Major League Baseball manager will be fired, resign, or otherwise depart before December 1, 2026—about 150 days from now. The 43% probability for A.J. Hinch reflects uncertainty around mid-season managerial changes, which typically occur when teams underperform or face organizational conflicts. The timing matters because we're currently in the 2026 regular season, so this period captures the remainder of the season through the playoffs and immediate offseason. The main drivers are current team performance relative to expectations, playoff positioning decisions, and any organizational instability. The biggest inflection point will be the trade deadline and subsequent playoff performance, which historically correlate with managerial changes. Key factors: - A.J. Hinch's Houston Astros performance through the trade deadline and playoff push—teams typically make managerial changes if postseason hopes fade or internal conflict emerges - Year-to-date win-loss records and playoff probability for teams managed by the other candidates (Boone, Counsell, Butera, Albernaz) relative to organizational expectations - Historical baseline: MLB averages roughly 1-2 mid-season managerial changes per season, making a ~43% probability for a single manager within 5 months realistic but not heavily favored - Any reported front-office tensions, contract disputes, or public statements indicating job security concerns for listed managers - Playoff qualification thresholds for each manager's team—teams eliminated from contention are more likely to make leadership changes before October Contracts: - Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Matt Quatraro — 51¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Joe Espada — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Dan Wilson — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Aaron Boone — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: A.J. Hinch — 15¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 100%) - Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Derek Shelton — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: John Schneider — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which Pro Baseball Managers will be out before Dec 1, 2026?: Craig Counsell — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-23T22:20:51.246Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/coachoutmlb Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20Pro%20Baseball%20Managers%20will%20be%20out%20before%20Dec%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev