13% — Will Aaron Boone be out before Sep 1, 2026
Leader: Out before Nov 15, 2026 at 13% · Kalshi 13% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract represents the probability that Aaron Boone will be fired or resign as New York Yankees manager before September 1, 2026. At 12%, the market assigns this outcome low odds, reflecting Boone's established position with the organization and typical managerial tenure. The probability is primarily driven by the Yankees' regular-season performance through mid-August, as a significant collapse or unprecedented dysfunction could trigger front-office action. There's a notable 19-percentage-point gap between venues, with Polymarket pricing the scenario at 30% versus Kalshi's 11%, suggesting disagreement over either Boone's job security or the organization's tolerance for underperformance. The main catalyst would be the team's win-loss record and playoff positioning by late August, which would determine whether ownership considers managerial change necessary.

Key factors:
- Yankees' winning percentage and playoff positioning as of August 2026, compared to historical standards for managerial dismissal mid-season
- Presence or absence of publicly reported front-office disputes, player conflicts, or media narratives questioning Boone's authority or competence
- Boone's contract terms and any buyout provisions that would affect owner willingness to make an in-season managerial change
- Comparison to recent precedent: when other established MLB managers were removed mid-season and what circumstances triggered those decisions
- Kalshi vs. Polymarket pricing discrepancy (11% vs. 30%), indicating either different interpretive models or one venue's potential mispricing

Contracts:
- Will Aaron Boone be out before Nov 15, 2026?: Out before Nov 15, 2026 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will Aaron Boone be out before Mar 24, 2027?: Out before Mar 24, 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/coachoutmlbdate-27nyy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aaron%20Boone%20be%20out%20before%20Sep%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev