27% — Will Aaron Boone be out before Sep 1, 2026
Leader: Out before Nov 15, 2026 at 27% · Kalshi 27% · 2 contracts · $65 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 17:26:19 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently assign a 24% probability that Aaron Boone will be removed as Yankees manager before September 1, 2026. This reflects modest concern about his job security despite the team's position mid-season. The probability is driven primarily by the Yankees' performance trajectory and any public statements from ownership regarding managerial continuity. The main catalyst for resolution will be the team's results through late August, particularly their standing in the AL East and Wild Card race, as well as any official announcements from the organization about Boone's future. Teams typically make significant managerial decisions after the season concludes, making late-August performance critical to this specific timeframe.

Key factors:
- Yankees' win-loss record and playoff positioning as of August 31, 2026
- Any public statements from Yankees ownership, Hal Steinbrenner, or general management about Boone's job status
- Team performance in August specifically, as in-season managerial changes are relatively uncommon
- Historical precedent showing mid-season managerial departures occur primarily during severe performance crises
- Contract terms and financial implications that might influence timing of any potential change

Contracts:
- Will Aaron Boone be out before Nov 15, 2026?: Out before Nov 15, 2026 — 27¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 100%)
- Will Aaron Boone be out before Mar 24, 2027?: Out before Mar 24, 2027 — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T17:20:52.991Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "27% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/coachoutmlbdate-27nyy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aaron%20Boone%20be%20out%20before%20Sep%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev