5% — Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026
Leader: Sean McVay at 5% · Kalshi 5% · 3 contracts · $15K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:16 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 9% probability that at least one NFL head coach will be terminated or resign before September 1, 2026. Mike Vrabel leads the implied list at 9%, suggesting markets view mid-season coaching changes as uncommon but plausible within the next 3.5 months. The relatively low probability reflects that most coaching transitions occur in the offseason; coaches typically have contractual protections and job security during the active season. The main catalysts that would increase this probability include catastrophic team performance, significant player injuries forcing changes, or public controversies. Resolution will occur automatically as the September 1 deadline approaches, with any coaching departures triggering outcomes based on the specific coach involved.

Key factors:
- NFL coaches typically maintain positions through the season unless facing extreme circumstances such as 0-5+ records or severe locker room breakdown
- Contractual structures and guaranteed compensation make mid-season firings financially costly for franchises, reducing motivation for moves before offseason
- The timeframe encompasses the remainder of the 2025 regular season and preseason training camps, periods when operational stability is generally prioritized
- Mike Vrabel's elevated price relative to other coaches suggests market perception of either recent tension with ownership, team performance concerns, or higher baseline volatility in his situation
- Historical data on NFL mid-season coaching changes would show whether 9% falls within typical seasonal ranges or represents an unusual spike

Contracts:
- Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?: Sean McVay — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?: Mike Vrabel — 4¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 88%)
- Which Pro Football coaches will be out before Sep 1, 2026?: Matt LaFleur — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 12%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.286Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/coachoutnfl
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20Pro%20Football%20coaches%20will%20be%20out%20before%20Sep%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev