97% — Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for August 2026 be above -3%
Leader: Above 93 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 9 contracts · $16K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 4% probability that Coca-Cola's point-of-sale growth in August 2026 will exceed -3%, meaning traders believe the company faces a greater than 96% chance of declining more than 3% during this period. The low probability reflects expectations of significant headwinds for the beverage industry in August. Key drivers include consumer spending patterns during summer months, competitive pressures in the soft drink market, and broader economic conditions affecting discretionary purchases. The market will resolve based on Coca-Cola's official August 2026 point-of-sale data, typically reported in early September. The contract structure suggests traders are pricing in substantial weakness, with most probability mass concentrated on declines exceeding -7%.

Key factors:
- August 2026 point-of-sale performance will be officially reported by Coca-Cola in September, providing definitive resolution data
- The price structure (76¢ for >-11% vs 46¢ for >-3%) indicates market consensus expects August decline of 7-11%
- Summer seasonality, retail inventory management, and pricing strategies in Q3 directly affect monthly point-of-sale growth rates
- Overall beverage industry demand patterns and competitive market share shifts in the month will determine whether Coca-Cola's decline exceeds or stays within the -3% threshold
- Consumer spending trends, promotional activity levels, and channel mix (retail vs foodservice) during August will materially influence the final reported growth figure

Contracts:
- Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 93 ?: Above 93 — 97¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 9%)
- Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 96 ?: Above 96 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 97 ?: Above 97 — 82¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 1%)
- Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 99 ?: Above 99 — 80¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 47%)
- Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 98 ?: Above 98 — 79¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 24%)
- Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 100 ?: Above 100 — 72¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 1%)
- Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 101 ?: Above 101 — 49¢ Kalshi $202 (weight 1%)
- Will Coca-Cola Point of Sale Growth for September 2026 be above 102 ?: Above 102 — 20¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 17%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-11T19:20:52.836Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cocacolapos
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Coca-Cola%20Point%20of%20Sale%20Growth%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%20-3%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev