58% — Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026 Leader: Anthropic at 58% · Kalshi 58% · 3 contracts · $110 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 02:52:16 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects traders' assessment that Anthropic will be recognized as having the best coding model by year-end 2026. The 55% lead over OpenAI's 37% suggests meaningful confidence in Anthropic's trajectory, though the relatively narrow margin indicates genuine uncertainty. Market pricing will likely shift based on benchmark performance—coding competitions, GitHub Copilot adoption metrics, and public model releases throughout the second half of 2026. The lack of a single formal "winner" definition means traders are inferring consensus from developer adoption, enterprise deployment, and performance on standardized coding tests. Resolution will depend on which models demonstrate superior performance on tasks like algorithm generation, bug detection, and code completion accuracy. The 6-7 month timeframe allows for significant model updates from all competitors. Key factors: - Model release timing: Whether Anthropic, OpenAI, or Google releases a new coding-specialized model in H2 2026 that outperforms existing benchmarks - Benchmark results: Performance scores on standardized coding evaluation suites (e.g., HumanEval, LeetCode-style problems) published before year-end - Enterprise adoption metrics: Real-world usage data showing which models are selected by major developers and integrated into commercial tools - Developer preference indicators: GitHub discussions, Stack Overflow signals, and industry surveys reflecting which models are considered superior by practitioners - Definition and judging criteria: Ambiguity around what constitutes 'best'—whether measured by accuracy, speed, adoption, or independent expert assessment Contracts: - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 58¢ Kalshi $110 (weight 100%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 29¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T02:20:49.011Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "58% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/codingmodel Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20AI%20company%20will%20have%20the%20best%20coding%20model%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev