60% — Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Leader: Anthropic at 60% · Kalshi 60% · 4 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that a single AI company will have demonstrably the best coding model by year-end 2026. The 28-percentage-point gap between Polymarket (49%) and Kalshi (21%) reflects disagreement on how to evaluate and compare coding capabilities across different vendors. Current market pricing suggests OpenAI and Anthropic are primary contenders, though recent April assessments show fragmented views on which company leads in specialized AI tasks. The probability will likely shift based on new model releases, benchmark results from independent evaluators like LMSYS or academic leaderboards, and how "best" gets operationalized—whether measured by coding accuracy, speed, real-world adoption, or specific benchmarks. Key resolution catalysts include major model announcements (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta typically release updates in clusters), publication of standardized coding benchmarks, and community consensus on evaluation methodology.

Key factors:
- OpenAI's current coding model is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket for best-coding-model-end-of-April, suggesting market skepticism of its near-term position despite historically strong coding performance
- Anthropic shows strong positioning in math reasoning (81¢) but unclear coding-specific strength, creating uncertainty about cross-domain model capabilities
- Polymarket prices are 2-3x higher than Kalshi equivalents across similar contracts, indicating structural differences in how venues' participants assess model competition
- No single standardized benchmark is referenced in current contracts; resolution depends on how the prediction market operator defines and measures 'best' coding model
- Eight months remain for multiple companies to release new models, making current April 2026 assessments potentially outdated by year-end evaluation date

Contracts:
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic — 60¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 28%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI — 30¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 34%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 29%)
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google — 5¢ Kalshi $451 (weight 9%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.898Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "60% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/codingmodel
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20AI%20company%20will%20have%20the%20best%20coding%20model%20on%20Dec%2031%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev