42% — Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match
Kalshi 40% · 6 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 14:41:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This market asks whether the Los Angeles Thieves and Vancouver Surge will play more than 3.5 maps in their Call of Duty match, currently priced at 35% probability, suggesting bettors expect the series to finish in four maps or fewer. Best-of-5 series in competitive Call of Duty typically end 3-0 or 3-1, making 3.5+ maps (requiring at least one team to win 3-2) less common. The probability reflects team strength differentials, recent form, and historical series length in professional Call of Duty. The match outcome will be determined when the teams play, with the exact map count resolving the contract immediately upon completion.

Key factors:
- Head-to-head historical matchup data between Los Angeles Thieves and Vancouver Surge in 2026 season, including previous series lengths and competitive balance
- Current season win-loss records and map differential for both teams, indicating whether one team consistently dominates early in series
- Recent roster changes, player performance trends, or meta shifts in Call of Duty that could favor extended competition or dominant play
- Map pool composition and team specialization—teams with distinct map strengths vs. weaknesses are more likely to split maps and extend series
- Comparison to baseline: 54% probability for Boston Breach vs. Paris, and 30% probability for G2 Minnesota vs. Miami suggests tier differences affect expected series length

Contracts:
- Will over 4.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match?: Over 4.5 maps — 18¢ Kalshi $594 (weight 23%)
- Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Los Angeles Thieves vs. Vancouver Surge Call of Duty match?: Over 3.5 maps — 55¢ Kalshi $312 (weight 21%)
- Will over 4.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match?: Over 4.5 maps — 29¢ Kalshi $175 (weight 18%)
- Will over 3.5 maps be played in the G2 Minnesota vs. Miami Heretics Call of Duty match?: Over 3.5 maps — 66¢ Kalshi $159 (weight 18%)
- Will over 3.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match?: Over 3.5 maps — 53¢ Kalshi $139 (weight 18%)
- Will over 4.5 maps be played in the Boston Breach vs. Paris Gentle Mates Call of Duty match?: Over 4.5 maps — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 2%)

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/codtotalmaps
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20over%203.5%20maps%20be%20played%20in%20the%20Los%20Angeles%20Thieves%20vs.%20Vancouver%20Surge%20Call%20of%20Duty%20match
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev