92% — Will Coinbase Global Inc. report Above 8 million monthly transacting users in fiscal 2026
Leader: Above 6.5 million at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 6 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 00:11:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects traders' expectations that Coinbase will report more than 8 million monthly transacting users by the end of fiscal 2026. The 90% probability assigned to the lower 6.5 million threshold suggests confidence in sustained user growth, while the sharply lower 29% price on the 8 million target indicates material skepticism about reaching that specific level. Key drivers include Coinbase's historical user acquisition trends, cryptocurrency market activity cycles, and competitive dynamics in retail trading platforms. The resolution hinges on Coinbase's official fiscal 2026 year-end earnings report, which will disclose audited monthly transacting user figures. Traders are pricing in solid growth but distinguishing between reaching mid-range targets (6.5–7.5 million) versus the higher 8 million mark, suggesting uncertainty around acceleration factors like regulatory clarity, market volatility, or product adoption rates.

Key factors:
- Coinbase reported 9.2 million monthly transacting users in Q1 2024, establishing a recent baseline for evaluating 2026 projections
- The probability decline from 90% at 6.5M to 29% at 8M users suggests traders expect growth but not acceleration beyond historical rates
- Fiscal 2026 year-end earnings report will provide the definitive monthly transacting user count needed to resolve all contracts
- Cryptocurrency market volatility and regulatory developments in 2026 will materially affect retail trading activity and platform adoption
- Competitive pressure from other exchanges and emerging trading platforms could limit Coinbase's user growth trajectory

Contracts:
- Will Coinbase Global Inc. report Above 6.5 million monthly transacting users in fiscal 2026?: Above 6.5 million — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Coinbase Global Inc. report Above 7 million monthly transacting users in fiscal 2026?: Above 7 million — 83¢ Kalshi $900 (weight 60%)
- Will Coinbase Global Inc. report Above 7.5 million monthly transacting users in fiscal 2026?: Above 7.5 million — 57¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 13%)
- Will Coinbase Global Inc. report Above 8 million monthly transacting users in fiscal 2026?: Above 8 million — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Coinbase Global Inc. report Above 8.5 million monthly transacting users in fiscal 2026?: Above 8.5 million — 12¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 13%)
- Will Coinbase Global Inc. report Above 9 million monthly transacting users in fiscal 2026?: Above 9 million — 6¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.503Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/coina
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Coinbase%20Global%20Inc.%20report%20Above%208%20million%20monthly%20transacting%20users%20in%20fiscal%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev