29% — Colombia Election 1st Round
Leader: Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 5-10% at 29% · Polymarket 29% · 6 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 19:58:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market measures the probability that Gustavo Petro's preferred successor, Francia Márquez or allied candidate, wins Colombia's first-round presidential election with a 10-15 percentage-point margin. At 38%, traders view a narrow victory in this range as more likely than the runner-up scenario (33%), suggesting competitive but not dominant performance. The relatively compressed probability distribution across margin bands reflects uncertainty about voter consolidation and turnout among left-leaning coalitions. Key drivers include economic conditions, voter enthusiasm for the ruling party's agenda, and fragmentation on the right. The outcome becomes certain on election day, which will reveal actual first-round results and determine whether winners advance to a runoff.

Key factors:
- Historical Colombian first-round margins: past elections show winners typically exceed 20-25% margins, making a 10-15% gap notably narrow by precedent
- Ruling coalition consolidation risk: the left's vote could splinter across multiple candidates, reducing the leading candidate's margin significantly below 10%
- Right-wing fragmentation: if opposition votes split across competing conservative candidates, the leading left candidate's margin could widen beyond 15%
- Voter turnout patterns: abstention rates and demographic participation shifts will directly affect the absolute vote gaps between top finishers
- Recent polling data and trend direction: surveys in the months preceding the election will show whether the frontrunner is gaining or losing ground relative to competitors

Contracts:
- Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 5-10% — 29¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 17%)
- Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?: de la Espriella Win — 26¢ Polymarket $326 (weight 3%)
- Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 0-5% — 23¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 14%)
- Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 10-15% — 18¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 20%)
- Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 15-20% — 7¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 10%)
- Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?: Cepeda Castro 20%+ — 3¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 36%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:08.688Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/colombia-election-1st-round
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Colombia%20Election%201st%20Round
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev