37% — Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round
Leader: Turnout?: 54-57% at 37% · Polymarket 37% · 6 contracts · $267 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:02:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that turnout in Colombia's first-round presidential election will fall between 54-57%. Turnout in Colombian elections has historically varied substantially based on voter engagement, regional participation patterns, and competition dynamics among candidates. The current 48% probability suggests modest confidence in this particular turnout band, with meaningful probability mass assigned to higher turnout (60%+) and adjacent ranges. Key drivers include voter enthusiasm around leading candidates, mobilization capacity of political campaigns, and socioeconomic factors affecting participation across regions. The outcome will be definitively resolved when official turnout figures are published by Colombia's electoral authority following the election, making this a binary outcome that depends entirely on administrative reporting rather than subjective interpretation.

Key factors:
- Historical Colombian first-round turnout has ranged from approximately 48% to 54% over recent presidential cycles, constraining the plausibility of extreme values
- The 60%+ turnout contract trading at 27¢ suggests meaningful probability markets assign to unusually high participation, likely driven by competitive candidate fields or exceptional mobilization
- Turnout in the 48-51% and 51-54% bands each trade between 24-26¢, indicating near-equal probability assigned to lower adjacent ranges versus the current leader
- Recent polling intensity and media engagement levels would provide leading indicators of turnout expectations weeks before the official vote
- Election date and official turnout release by Colombian electoral authority (CNE) represent the sole mechanism for resolving this contract with objective data

Contracts:
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?: 54-57% — 37¢ Polymarket $24 (weight 9%)
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?: 57-60% — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?: 60%+ — 14¢ Polymarket $6 (weight 2%)
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?: 51-54% — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?: 48-51% — 11¢ Polymarket $71 (weight 26%)
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st Round: Turnout?: <48% — 6¢ Polymarket $166 (weight 62%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:14.558Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Colombia%20Presidential%20Election%201st%20Round
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev