76% — Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place
Leader: 2nd place: Abelardo de la Espriella at 76% · Polymarket 76% · 4 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:03:01 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects the probability that Abelardo de la Espriella finishes in second place in Colombia's 2026 presidential first round. At 68%, traders view him as a strong contender for the runner-up position, with Iván Cepeda Castro as the nearest alternative at 29%. The pricing reflects recent polling trends, Espriella's standing within his political faction, and broader dynamics of vote consolidation among center-right and moderate candidates. The key uncertainty involves how fragmented the field remains and whether regional voting patterns shift support toward competing candidates. The first-round vote itself will resolve all outcome contracts, making actual election day the critical catalyst for determining final standings and eliminating current uncertainty about candidate positioning.

Key factors:
- Recent Colombian polling data showing Espriella's relative standing among non-frontrunner candidates in the presidential race
- Fragmentation across moderate and center-right voter segments and whether consolidation occurs before election day
- Historical patterns of second-place finishes in Colombian presidential first rounds and typical vote distributions
- Espriella's organizational capacity and campaign resources compared to Cepeda Castro and other listed competitors
- The date of the first-round presidential election itself, which will provide definitive resolution of candidate rankings

Contracts:
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place: Abelardo de la Espriella — 76¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 26%)
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place: Iván Cepeda Castro — 23¢ Polymarket $346 (weight 6%)
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place: Sergio Fajardo — 3¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 41%)
- Colombia Presidential Election 1st round: 2nd place: Paloma Valencia — 3¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 27%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-05T07:20:12.382Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-2nd-place
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Colombia%20Presidential%20Election%201st%20round%3A%202nd%20place
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev