5% — Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 12% and 15%
Leader: Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6% at 5% · Kalshi 5% · 2 contracts · $607 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 16% chance that Abelardo de la Espriella wins the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff by a margin between 12% and 15 percentage points. The market is currently pricing de la Espriella's most likely margin at 6–9%, with modest spillover probability into the 12–15% band. De la Espriella's lead depends on campaign momentum, voter consolidation in the runoff, and whether opposition voters coalesce around the runner-up. The main scenario driving higher probability in this band would be stronger-than-expected turnout among his base or significant defection from the alternative candidate. The runoff itself—scheduled for June 2026—will settle the outcome, with final vote tallies determining the exact margin. Liquidity is minimal on this specific contract, suggesting limited trading activity despite the nearby election date.

Key factors:
- De la Espriella's support ceiling: whether primary voters convert to runoff turnout at expected rates or defect to the alternative candidate
- Opposition consolidation: whether Iván Cepeda's voters migrate cohesively to the runoff alternative or fragment
- Turnout differential: changes in voter mobilization between de la Espriella's coalition and the runner-up's base
- Polling convergence: the gap between current polling and actual runoff vote share narrows significantly in the final weeks
- Runoff date and official vote count: Colombian electoral authority certification in June 2026 will definitively resolve all margin bands

Contracts:
- Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 3% and 6%?: Abelardo de la Espriella, 3-6% — 5¢ Kalshi $605 (weight 100%)
- Will the margin of victory for Abelardo de la Espriella in the 2026 Colombian presidential runoff be between 9% and 12%?: Abelardo de la Espriella, 9-12% — 3¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.507Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/colombian2rmov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Abelardo%20de%20la%20Espriella%20in%20the%202026%20Colombian%20presidential%20runoff%20be%20between%2012%25%20and%2015%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev