41% — Will Honduras win the CONCACAF Nations League A Kalshi 41% · 12 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:41:42 UTC Why this matters: This probability suggests Honduras has roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the CONCACAF Nations League A tournament. The 32% estimate reflects Honduras's competitive standing within a regional tournament featuring teams like Mexico, Guatemala, and Canada. The main factors driving this level are Honduras's recent performance record in CONCACAF competitions and how that compares to other contenders in the bracket. The tournament structure and which teams Honduras would face in knockout stages significantly affects their odds. Resolution will occur when the Nations League A tournament concludes and a champion is crowned, likely sometime in 2026 or early 2027 depending on the competition schedule. Market pricing suggests Guatemala (43¢) and Honduras (38¢) are viewed as more competitive than Mexico (25¢), indicating expectations about relative team strength have shifted or been reassessed by traders. Key factors: - Honduras's win rate in recent CONCACAF tournament play compared to Guatemala, Mexico, and other Nations League A participants - The specific bracket draw and potential matchups Honduras would face—some paths to the final are mathematically easier than others depending on seeding - Honduras's squad depth and availability of key players during the tournament window - Historical head-to-head records between Honduras and other Nations League A teams, particularly Mexico and Guatemala - Whether the tournament format favors offensive or defensive play styles that align with Honduras's tactical strengths Contracts: - Will Mexico win the CONCACAF Nations League A?: Mexico — 42¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 87%) - Will USA win the CONCACAF Nations League A?: USA — 30¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 13%) - Will Dominican Republic win the CONCACAF Nations League A?: Dominican Republic — 34¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - Will Anguilla win the CONCACAF Nations League C?: Anguilla — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Cuba win the CONCACAF Nations League B?: Cuba — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Saint Lucia win the CONCACAF Nations League B?: Saint Lucia — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Costa Rica win the CONCACAF Nations League A?: Costa Rica — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jamaica win the CONCACAF Nations League A?: Jamaica — 38¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T06:20:51.563Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "41% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/concacafnl Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Honduras%20win%20the%20CONCACAF%20Nations%20League%20A Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev