24% — Will Sam Altman testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027 Kalshi 24% · 12 contracts · $923 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 20:25:22 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chance that Sam Altman will be called to testify before a congressional committee between now and January 2027. Congressional testimony typically occurs when lawmakers investigate significant policy issues, corporate practices, or controversies. The current 36% probability suggests markets view testimony as possible but not highly likely. Factors driving this level include the absence of active congressional investigations into OpenAI specifically, though AI regulation remains a topic of legislative interest. The cross-venue gap of 8 percentage points indicates some disagreement about likelihood. The biggest catalyst would be a formal congressional hearing announcement or trigger event—such as AI-related incidents, regulatory developments, or specific legislative proposals targeting AI governance—that prompts lawmakers to seek testimony from major AI company leaders. Without such an event materializing, baseline expectations remain moderate. Key factors: - No announced congressional hearing or investigation specifically targeting Sam Altman or OpenAI as of late April 2026 - Jerome Powell's congressional testimony probability sits at 57%, suggesting regular Fed chair appearances, whereas no comparable obligation exists for AI company CEOs - Sam Altman's White House visit probability is 78%, indicating political access but not necessarily legislative scrutiny - AI regulation remains an active topic in Congress, but testimony requests typically follow triggering events rather than occurring proactively - Market pricing shows 8-percentage-point divergence between venues, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the likelihood and timing of congressional interest Contracts: - Will Mark Zuckerberg testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg — 34¢ Kalshi $609 (weight 66%) - Will Anthony Fauci testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Anthony Fauci — 81¢ Kalshi $314 (weight 34%) - Will Barack Obama testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Barack Obama — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Ghislaine Maxwell — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Joe Biden testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Joe Biden — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will James Donaldson testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: James Donaldson — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jerome Powell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Jerome Powell — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jelly Roll testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Jelly Roll — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T20:20:50.521Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "24% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/congresstestify Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sam%20Altman%20testify%20in%20front%20of%20Congress%20before%20Jan%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev