18% — Will Sam Altman testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027 Kalshi 18% · 12 contracts · $28 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 12:59:58 UTC Why this matters: This contract measures the probability that Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, will be called to testify before a congressional committee or hearing before January 1, 2027. The current 25% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about whether Congress will prioritize AI regulation hearings featuring Altman over the next six months. Congressional testimony typically occurs in response to either scheduled legislative efforts on AI oversight or reactive political pressure following major AI-related incidents. The timing matters significantly: major AI developments, public controversies, or shifts in congressional AI policy priorities would increase likelihood, while lack of legislative momentum on AI regulation would decrease it. Comparatively, the market prices Altman's testimony as less likely than Fauci's (81%) but more likely than Obama's (9%), suggesting moderate but not overwhelming congressional interest in his participation. Key factors: - Congressional schedule: Whether AI regulation legislation is formally introduced and scheduled for hearings before January 2027 - Competitive testimonies: If major tech CEOs like Zuckerberg (priced at 34%) are called to testify, Altman's inclusion becomes more probable - AI incidents or developments: Significant AI-related events (safety issues, capabilities breakthroughs, or economic disruption) could trigger urgent congressional hearings - Current political priorities: Shifts in congressional focus on AI governance versus other policy areas directly affect hearing scheduling likelihood - Industry group positioning: Whether OpenAI requests or accepts invitations to testify at scheduled oversight hearings Contracts: - Will Mark Zuckerberg testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg — 40¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 84%) - Will Anthony Fauci testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Anthony Fauci — 4¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 16%) - Will Barack Obama testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Barack Obama — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Ghislaine Maxwell — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Joe Biden testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Joe Biden — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will James Donaldson testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: James Donaldson — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jerome Powell testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Jerome Powell — 30¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jelly Roll testify in front of Congress before Jan 2027?: Jelly Roll — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T12:20:51.704Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/congresstestify Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sam%20Altman%20testify%20in%20front%20of%20Congress%20before%20Jan%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev