10% — Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year
Kalshi 7% · 14 contracts · $856 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 17:27:44 UTC

Why this matters:
The 40% probability indicates that one particular team is currently favored to win the Stanley Cup, but faces substantial competition from other contenders. This represents the market's assessment based on team roster strength, playoff performance to date, and injury status heading into the final stretch of the 2025-26 regular season. The probability could shift significantly based on late-season acquisitions at the trade deadline, key player injuries, or early playoff performance. The Stanley Cup Finals in June will ultimately resolve this outcome, with each playoff round between now and then providing new information about team momentum and performance under playoff conditions.

Key factors:
- Current team health status and any significant injuries to star players or goaltenders
- Trade deadline activity in early March and how teams bolster their rosters for playoff runs
- Head-to-head playoff performance in the first two rounds, which typically reshapes market expectations
- Strength of schedule in the remaining regular season games and playoff seeding implications
- Historical playoff success and experience of coaching staff and veteran players on the favored team

Contracts:
- Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Nathan MacKinnon — 21¢ Kalshi $629 (weight 25%)
- Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Frederik Andersen — 11¢ Kalshi $137 (weight 19%)
- Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Scott Wedgewood — 5¢ Kalshi $70 (weight 17%)
- Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Kirill Kaprizov — 4¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 12%)
- Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Cole Caufield — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 3%)
- Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Cale Makar — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 3%)
- Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Jack Eichel — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 3%)
- Who will win the Conn Smythe trophy this year?: Jake Oettinger — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 3%)
- ... and 6 more

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/connsmythe
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20Conn%20Smythe%20trophy%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev