36% — Will Cook Islands Party win the 2026 Cook Islands general election
Kalshi 36% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-08 14:19:23 UTC

Why this matters:
The Cook Islands Party is currently assigned a 24% probability of winning the 2026 general election, implying a roughly 3-to-1 odds against victory. This reflects market expectations relative to other major parties competing—the Democratic Party trades at 36%, while One Cook Islands Movement and Cook Islands United Party each trade at 3%. The current estimate suggests the Democratic Party enters as the frontrunner in market expectations, though no single party commands majority probability. The Cook Islands holds general elections once every four years; the election date and campaign dynamics will determine whether this probability shifts significantly. Factors shaping the Cook Islands Party's chances include recent polling data, campaign momentum, coalition-building possibilities, voter sentiment on key local issues, and leadership performance. The actual election date will provide the definitive resolution, with final results expected to clarify which party secured the most parliamentary seats.

Key factors:
- The Cook Islands Party's 24% probability ranks third among the four major parties tracked, behind the Democratic Party (36%) and substantially ahead of One Cook Islands Movement and Cook Islands United Party (3% each)
- Market concentration shows 55¢ on Cook Islands Party contracts compared to 36¢ on Democratic Party, suggesting price discovery remains active and relative valuations may shift with new information
- The election outcome depends on parliamentary seat distribution across multiple constituencies; coalition dynamics and strategic alliances could significantly alter winning probabilities from current baseline estimates
- Recent polling results, campaign announcements, leadership changes, or major policy shifts specific to Cook Islands domestic politics would typically drive probability movements in prediction markets for elections
- The scheduled 2026 election date provides a definitive resolution point; as the election date approaches, historical patterns show prediction markets typically narrow probability ranges based on accumulated campaign information

Contracts:
- Will Cook Islands Party win the 2026 Cook Islands general election?: Cook Islands Party — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will Democratic Party win the 2026 Cook Islands general election?: Democratic Party — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will One Cook Islands Movement win the 2026 Cook Islands general election?: One Cook Islands Movement — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-08-28T15:20:52.318Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cookparli
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Cook%20Islands%20Party%20win%20the%202026%20Cook%20Islands%20general%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev