47% — Mirassol wins by over 1.5 goals
Leader: Internacional wins by over 1.5 goals at 47% · Kalshi 47% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:25 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 22% chance that Mirassol defeats their opponent by more than one goal. Mirassol's relatively low probability reflects typical statistical distributions for lopsided wins—most matches end in draws or single-goal margins. The current level suggests market participants view Mirassol as unlikely to dominate, though not impossibly so. Key drivers include Mirassol's recent form, defensive capabilities of their opponent, and historical head-to-head records. The outcome will be determined when their scheduled match concludes, with resolution depending on final match score. Similar contracts across other teams (Arsenal at 33%, Colorado at 41%) provide context: double-digit goal margins occur in roughly one-fifth to two-fifths of matchups depending on relative team strength.

Key factors:
- Mirassol's recent goal-scoring efficiency and conversion rate in their last 5-10 matches
- Current defensive strength and clean-sheet record of the opposing team
- Historical frequency of 2+ goal victory margins in this league or competition
- Head-to-head results between these specific teams in recent seasons
- Injury or personnel status that could affect attacking depth or defensive stability

Contracts:
- Internacional wins by over 1.5 goals?: Internacional wins by over 1.5 goals — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Internacional wins by over 2.5 goals?: Internacional wins by over 2.5 goals — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/copadobrasilspread
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Mirassol%20wins%20by%20over%201.5%20goals
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev