48% — Will Christina Blunt be the Republican nominee for CO-02
Kalshi 48% · 10 contracts · $61K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:29 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Christina Blunt becomes the Republican nominee for Colorado's 2nd Congressional District. At 46%, the market assigns her less than even odds compared to Kelley Dennison, who trades at 71% for the same nomination. The gap between their probabilities suggests that recent polling, endorsements, or fundraising reports favor Dennison. Blunt's nomination probability would increase with stronger primary performance metrics, higher name recognition in the district, or notable endorsements from party leadership. It would decrease if Dennison consolidates support or if Blunt's campaign faces fundraising challenges. The primary election itself will be the critical catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Until that vote occurs, factors like candidate visibility, donor backing, and district polling will continue to shape expectations.

Key factors:
- Kelley Dennison is trading 25 percentage points higher than Blunt (71% vs 46%), indicating market participants view her as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination
- No contracts for other Republican candidates in CO-02 appear in the current top list, suggesting Blunt and Dennison are the two main contenders
- 24-hour trading volume for the Blunt contract is zero, indicating minimal recent activity and uncertainty about conviction behind current pricing
- The probability requires Blunt to overcome a significant structural disadvantage relative to her main competitor before the primary vote
- District demographics, turnout expectations, and any recent campaign developments would materially shift these odds

Contracts:
- Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?: Melat Kiros — 75¢ Kalshi $37K (weight 60%)
- Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?: Diana DeGette — 23¢ Kalshi $23K (weight 38%)
- Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?: Alex Kelloff — 51¢ Kalshi $481 (weight 1%)
- Will Jessica Killin be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?: Jessica Killin — 91¢ Kalshi $400 (weight 1%)
- Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?: Dwayne Romero — 42¢ Kalshi $231 (weight 0%)
- Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?: Joe Reagan — 6¢ Kalshi $88 (weight 0%)
- Will Kelley Dennison be the Republican nominee for CO-02?: Kelley Dennison — 72¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 0%)
- Will Christina Blunt be the Republican nominee for CO-02?: Christina Blunt — 23¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.159Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/coprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Christina%20Blunt%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20CO-02
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev