36% — Will the corn close price be above $445.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Kalshi 34% · 19 contracts · $41K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 19:24:10 UTC

Why this matters:
This market tracks whether corn futures will close above $445.99 on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT—a date that has already passed as of today (May 3, 2026). The 37% probability reflects the current consensus that corn did not close above that threshold on the specified date. Corn prices are primarily influenced by weather conditions affecting crop development, global supply dynamics, and macroeconomic factors like currency movements and demand from feed and ethanol sectors. Since the resolution date is in the past, this contract should resolve based on the actual closing price recorded on April 30, 2026. The market probability at this stage depends on data verification and any remaining confirmation of historical price records from that specific trading session.

Key factors:
- Actual corn futures closing price on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT is the deterministic factor; historical price data from CBOT or equivalent exchange records will provide final verification
- The 37% probability suggests traders assessed a two-thirds chance corn closed at or below $445.99 on that date, indicating bearish positioning in late April
- Contract resolution depends on accessing and confirming accurate historical closing prices from the relevant futures exchange for the exact time and date specified
- Any trading halts, data errors, or exchange reporting discrepancies on April 30 could affect final settlement determination
- The lag between the April 30 event date and current market date (May 3) means resolution should be imminent pending data confirmation

Contracts:
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 107  USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $107 — 70¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 6%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 107.50  USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $107.50 — 65¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 6%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 108  USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $108 — 57¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 6%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110  USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $110 — 38¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 6%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 109.50  USD/Bbl on May 04, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $109.50 — 42¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Will the gold close price be above 5013.99  USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $5013.99 — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 108.99  USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $108.99 — 51¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- Will the brent crude oil close price be above 110.99  USD/Bbl on May 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $110.99 — 39¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 5%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/cornmon
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20corn%20close%20price%20be%20above%20%24445.99%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev