95% — Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 93
Leader: Above 93 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 8 contracts · $62 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 15:13:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract measures whether Costco's total monthly foot traffic in August 2026 will exceed 93 million visits. The 51% probability indicates traders slightly favor a result above this threshold, though the outcome remains uncertain. Costco's traffic typically reflects consumer spending patterns, economic confidence, and seasonal retail activity. August represents a back-to-school and late-summer shopping period, which historically drives warehouse traffic. The resolution will depend on actual foot-traffic data Costco reports, likely in late August or early September when the company releases monthly operational metrics. Economic conditions, gas prices, and employment levels heading into August will influence consumer behavior. The tight clustering of contracts around 93-96 million visits suggests traders view the likely outcome in this narrow band, with the 51%-49% split indicating genuine disagreement about whether August traffic stays below or above the 93 million threshold.

Key factors:
- Costco's reported monthly foot traffic for August 2026 must exceed 93 million visits to resolve above
- Seasonal patterns show August typically captures back-to-school spending and late-summer warehouse visits
- Recent macroeconomic indicators (employment, inflation, consumer confidence) in July-August will directly influence customer visits
- Gas prices and discretionary spending power in August affect the frequency and volume of warehouse visits
- The contract resolves based on Costco's official reported data, typically released in late August or early September

Contracts:
- Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 93 ?: Above 93 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 94 ?: Above 94 — 90¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 2%)
- Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 95 ?: Above 95 — 78¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 8%)
- Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 96 ?: Above 96 — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 97 ?: Above 97 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 103 ?: Above 103 — 15¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 2%)
- Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 98 ?: Above 98 — 3¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 89%)
- Will Costco Monthly Foot Traffic for August 2026 be above 99 ?: Above 99 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:50.029Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/costft
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Costco%20Monthly%20Foot%20Traffic%20for%20August%202026%20be%20above%2093
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev