34% — Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC
Leader: Kansas City at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 2 contracts · $962 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 21:46:13 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 34% probability reflects traders' assessment that Kansas City has roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the NFL AFC West Division. This price is elevated because Kansas City has dominated the division for years, though the outcome depends heavily on divisional performance gaps. The division structure means Kansas City must outperform three competitors: Denver, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas. The 2026 NFL season's progression will provide the primary catalyst for resolving this market, with weekly games beginning in September determining actual win-loss records. The current price balances Kansas City's historical strength against the inherent unpredictability of a single season, where injuries, trades, and coaching changes can shift divisional outcomes significantly.

Key factors:
- Kansas City's win-loss record relative to other AFC West teams during the 2026 regular season will directly determine the outcome
- Injury status of key players on Kansas City and competing teams (Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles) affects roster strength and offensive/defensive capabilities
- Playoff tiebreaker scenarios could determine division winner if multiple teams finish with identical records
- Historical division performance trends show Kansas City has won multiple recent AFC West titles, but divisional strength varies year to year
- The market price of 34% implies a roughly 2-to-1 probability against Kansas City relative to all other divisional outcomes combined

Contracts:
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC West Division?: Kansas City — 34¢ Kalshi $888 (weight 92%)
- Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC Championship?: Kansas City — 13¢ Kalshi $74 (weight 8%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T21:20:48.706Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/coventry-city-fc-vs-wrexham-afc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Coventry%20City%20FC%20vs.%20Wrexham%20AFC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev